The Presidential Election season of 2012 is going to be one of the most divisive, ugly, sleazy periods in the history of American politics. There is simply too much at stake for both sides of the political landscape to do anything but run no-holds-barred campaigns. The next few months will feature some wonderful gems of human behavior. We’ll witness Religious Bigotry, Race Baiting, Inciting of Violence, Misinformation & Outright Lies, Class Warfare, Shameless Propaganda, Personal Character Attacks, Voter Fraud…and much, much more! It’s how desperate politicians behave!
However, I am cautiously optimistic that when the smoke clears, Barack Obama (along with his gang of czars and political thugs) will be voted out of office.
As in every Presidential Election, this year’s result will hinge on a handful of “Swing States.” We can safely predict how 37 of the 50 states will vote…and can distribute their delegates in advance. After doing the math…the results of the Non-Swing States look like this:
- OBAMA – 196 Electoral Votes
- ROMNEY – 181 Electoral Votes
Keep in mind…it takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency.
Let’s take a look at these swing states. The chart below illustrates how each of the 13 swing states has voted in the last 10 Presidential Elections. Brief state-by-state analysis is below the chart.
FLORIDA (29 Electoral Votes): Given its large number of electoral votes up for grabs,Florida is a much-coveted swing state. However, I believe Florida is safely in the Romney column. Florida has voted for the Republican in 7 of the previous 10 elections, with the only exceptions being 2008 (Obama’s media gimme), 1996 (Ross Perot’s gift to Clinton), and 1976 (Carter’s run against a weak Gerald Ford). Obama’s honeymoon is over. I expect Florida voters to remember who they are, and go with the more conservative Romney.
PENNSYLVANIA (20): With its 20 votes, Pennsylvania will also be a bitter battleground. However, unlike Florida, Pennsylvania has more of a history of voting for the Democrat candidates (6 of the past 10 elections). In fact, the Democrats have carried Pennsylvania in each of the past 5 elections. Given that fact…I’m giving Pennsylvania to Obama.
OHIO (18): For my Ohio analysis, see Florida. The only years Ohio has voted for the Democrat candidate have been 2008 (Obama), 1992 & 1996 (Clinton w/Perot the spoiler), and 1972 (Carter). Although I’m not as confident in Ohio as I am in Florida, I’m still going with history and giving it to Romney.
MICHIGAN (16): Like Pennsylvania, Michigan has voted Democrat in each of the last 5 elections. Although I don’t think it’s a lock for the President, I am still going to chalk Michigan’s 16 votes up for Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA (15): Sorry Obama, but North Carolina’s 15 votes are going to Romney. Prior to the koolaid-tainted election of 2008, North Carolina voted Republican 7 straight elections. There is no way Obama carries North Carolina this year. 15 electoral votes to Romney.
VIRGINA (13): Virginia may not belong on the list of swing states. Ok, yes…Virginia voted for Obama in 2008. But Virginia knows who Obama is this time around. And given the fact that Virginia has voted Republican in the previous 9 elections prior to 2008, I think we can safely hand their 13 votes to Romney.
MISSOURI (10): I’m giving Missouri to Romney, as well. Missouri is the only one of these 13 swing states that actually voted for McCain in 2008. There is simply no way Romney does worse than John McCain in 2012. Missouri’s 10 votes belong to Romney.
WISCONSIN (10): I’ve waffled back and forth on Wisconsin. Initially, I gave Wisconsin to Obama. Historically, Wisconsin has voted Democrat in each of the past 6 elections. That’s a mighty tough trend to break. However, the shenanigans pulled by the Democrats this year in forcing a recall election for Governor Walker could come back to bite Obama. Why do you think the unions and the Democrat smear machine spent so much money trying desperately to defeat Walker. To me, Wisconsin is a toss-up. Nevertheless, I’m going to do the safe thing and give Wisconsin’s 10 votes to Obama.
COLORADO (9): Colorado is another state that historically votes Republican. The only exceptions are Obama’s free-pass year (2008) and the first year of Ross Perot’s gift to Clinton (1992). The 1996 vote actually encourages me because it appears as though Colorado learns from its mistakes, as it did in Clinton’s second election. I’m counting on Colorado responding to Obama’s disaster the same way and returning to its Republican dominance. Give Colorado’s 9 votes to Romney.
NEVADA (6): In my view, Nevada is another toss-up state. I could have easily given Nevada to Romney, given the fact that it has gone with the Republican in 7 of the past 10 elections. However, my fear that the corrupt SEIU may be too strong in Nevada prevents me from giving this state to Romney…although I wouldn’t be surprised. Again, I’m doing the safe thing and giving Nevada to Obama.
IOWA (6): Surprisingly, Iowa has been a relatively solid Democrat supporter for the past 6 elections. Republicans only carried Iowa in George W. Bush’s 2nd term (2004). Although I could see this Midwest state going for Romney, I’m going to play the historical odds and award Iowa’s 6 votes to Obama.
NEW MEXICO (5): New Mexico is another state that has trended Democrat over the past 5 elections. For this reason, I’m going with history and giving New Mexico’s 5 votes to Obama.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4): Like Iowa & New Mexico, New Hampshire has gone to the Democrats 4 of the past 5 elections. Although I think any one (or all) of these states could turn on Obama for the economic catastrophe his policies have caused. Again, going with recent history, I will give New Hampshire to Obama.
So, let’s tally up the electoral votes after these swing states are counted.
- OBAMA – 263
- ROMNEY – 275
And let the rioting begin!!
People who care about restoring the Constitutional values and the freedoms that made Americagreat must not leave this election to chance. Again, there is too much at stake.
Red Pill Report encourages all freedom-loving Americans to find a way to get involved in these Swing State elections…whether you live in one of them or not. There are many ways to get involved, the simplest of which is to donate money to the Romney campaign.
Remember…”All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing!” -Edmund Burke
In 2008, far too many American’s did nothing. Let’s not make that same mistake in 2012!